Not that anybody will care, but I am going on the record with a prediction about the outcome of the presidential election. It’s based on nothing scientific: no specific polling data, no focus group opinions. Just my own gut.
The popular vote will be Romney 57%, Obama 43%.
Of course these numbers totally ignore the several “third-party” candidates that will suck away from 1 to 5 percentage points from one or both major candidates, but I don’t think they will be a huge factor.
Like I said, it’s just my gut feeling that Romney will win by a comfortable margin. I said this about a week ago after the first debate. Then, after last night’s second presidential debate in “Town Hall” format, I felt it was pretty much a draw in terms of intensity (unlike the first debate). However, I’ve seen a couple of quick polls and focus groups that lead me to believe that Romney won on substance, especially with Independents.
Romney definitely has the momentum, with swing states “swinging” toward him. The reason is that he is simply able to present his case for his proposed policies forcefully and clearly, while Obama can say what he’ll do in the next four years, but that just begs the question of why he hasn’t done it in the last four years.
So, I’ve gone out on a limb and made my prediction, if anybody cares….
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